10/31/2009
Review of Markets in Profile: Profiting from the Auction Process (Wiley Trading) (Hardcover)
You can imagine, then, my delight when I had the opportunity to read an advance copy of the authors' new work, "Markets in Profile" and provide a review statement for the book's cover.I turn down these endorsement requests rather often.Frankly, many of them are simply favors being done by buddies and don't reflect an actual reading of the text.The least authors can do for their readers is keep it real.
There was no problem in my keeping it real when I wrote that "Good books teach, but the best books enlighten".Markets in Profile is one of those enlightening books, because it takes the conceptual framework from the first book and applies it to concrete trading time frames and trading scenarios.In that sense, I would say it is a worthy bridge between theory/understanding and practice.
A core theme of Markets in the Dalton, Dalton, and Jones text is the following nugget:"If you can correctly identify which timeframe is in control of market activity, and you have a good understanding of how the individual timeframes generally behave, then you are in a stronger position to trade, invest, and effectively control risk."The practical aspect of the book is that it illustrates how to read the Market Profile to grasp the long-, intermediate-, and short-term auctions and place current market activity into a proper context.
Time and again I have observed that a trading edge comes from understanding what is happening at the timeframes greater than the one you're trading.If you're in a trading range, you might want to be prepared for a breakout.Which way is it likely to break?Using price, time, and volume to see how value is being established at those larger timeframes provides invaluable clues.
As the authors also explain, observing volume patterns as the market moves away from value at one timeframe is very important to understanding whether or not we will return to value or reprice value (perhaps in line with the longer-term auctions).Seeing these dynamics evolve over time helps traders understand what is likely to occur, but also *why*.
I find the authors' use of examples, charts, and Market Profile diagrams to be quite helpful.This is not an encyclopedic work; it's a very readable 200 pages.By the end, however, readers will have a solid understanding of how to apply auction-based principles across timeframes and frame their trade ideas with that broader understanding.A particularly practical chapter is the one on day-trading, which shows how these principles are relevant to the active trader.
The authors make clear that Market Profile is not a trading system, but a framework from which trading ideas can be derived.My analogy isn't perfect, but perhaps it will make sense:Just as the periodic table helps chemists organize their understanding of elements and predict how elements are likely to interact with one another, the Market Profile organizes data on price, time, and volume to help traders anticipate market behavior.We have types of elements (metals, non-metals) and combinations of elements, and we have types of markets and combinations of markets: knowing type provides invaluable clues as to likely behavior in various situations.
It's rare that I don't have some reservations about a book.This one is clearly written, straightforward, and doesn't get away from its topic.There's no fluff, and (mercifully) there's no chest-beating self-congratulations from authors who try to make themselves out to be gurus.Markets in Profile is simply a guide for putting theory into practice at different time frames.That, in itself, is unique in the trading literature.
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Review of Fight For Your Money: How to Stop Getting Ripped Off and Save a Fortune (Hardcover)
David,
I just hung up with my cable and phone providers and because of your book:
--I am now saving $25 per month on home phone,
--changed plans on cellular and saved at least $30 per month just on the monthly portion, also got unlimited texting in the plan which I was paying about $20 a month for text over usage.
--The cable company cut my rate by 50% at $49 a month for six months then $20 a month cheaper after that without cutting service at all. We do like our HBO.
Total yearly savings are at least $1320
While I am very glad to be saving I feel like an idiot for allowing it to go own in the past. THe good with the bad you know.
The book also helped me update our wills, verify social security earnings, spend all of our gift cards, roll over an old employer's 401k to my fidelity account, and validated my buying my car that is two years old, lease trade in for 50% off the new car price (Cadillac DTS for $27,000) (this was a few years ago and I have preaching the practice to everyone)
All from reading your book the last couple of days. I would read it and then go to the computer, read some then to the computer. My wife thought I was nuts until I showed her the work I was doing. She still thinks it but not due to this behavior.
This really explains people dislike "the system". Banks, credit cards and just big business in general are all inherently bad and need to be regulated. As a small business owner I was more of the less regulation the better in the past but....
This book will help anyone who takes the time to read it.
Welcome to the Finish Rich World of David Bach
Thanks for reading,
Tom and Wanda Kennedy
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Review of Bold Endeavors: How Our Government Built America, and Why It Must Rebuild Now (Hardcover)
The author of this book helped save New York City.He chaired what was called the Municipal Assistance Corporation ("Big Mac") that forced all parties, including rich bankers, to sacrifice to save New York.It worked.
This book should help bury once and for all the fantasy that "big government" played no role in U.S. history.It details how government intervention again and again shaped U.S. economic policy.
Today, as the author points out, America is literally falling apart as result of a 28 year fantasy that "government was the problem".
Read this book.It's not written by an abstract intellectual.It's written by somebody who actually worked with real people to help one of America's biggest cities recover from a disaster produced by excessive government borrowing. American has had "credit card government" since 1981.Now we face a day of reckoning.This books gives insights on a way out of today's mess.
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Review of Cambridge Advanced Learner's Dictionary with CD-ROM (Dictionary & CD Rom) (Hardcover)
In the case of this particular dictionary, there's no contest! I write a lot for the British market. I have many British clients and must write in British English. I love British English and, to be frank, I think it's more beautiful both spoken and written than our own. But there's far more differences in meaning and spelling and even in the words than one might imagine.
The other day I needed to look up "lorry" to discover it was in fact a truck.
The dictionary gives both the US and the UK meaning and spelling of all the words. It's exceptionally easy to read and use. I use the Palm version and the software more than the book. The software is just great. It's a fast, easy install. The software is easy to use. For example, take the word lorry. If you're American, you simply look up truck and it gives you both the US and the UK terms. It also has an audio that lets you hear the way the word sounds, in either US or UK English.
The software also has a thesaurus, pictures of many things you will look up, a study guide, a place for notes about different words and entries and much more.
I truly love this dictionary. It's probably my favorite (or should I say favourite dictionary.)
If you have need of a dictionary that gives you both the American and the British spellings and definitions, this is the only book you'll need. In fact, if you're a writer who has any reason at all to write in British English, this is a must-have. I know of no other dictionary that's superior to this one.
Highly recommended.
- Susanna K. Hutcheson
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Review of The Supernova Advisor: Crossing the Invisible Bridge to Exceptional Client Service and Consistent Growth (Hardcover)
Our team was fortunate enough to learn this process while Rob worked at our firm and since adopting this approach our key clients have become much more satisfied, our team enjoys work, and our business has grown, counter-intuitively by working with less people. By reading the book and revisiting the concepts we have gained momentum in setting goals for next year.
I recommend reading this book and taking to heart its concepts if you want to be challenged and grow.
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10/30/2009
Review of Email Marketing By the Numbers: How to Use the World's Greatest Marketing Tool to Take Any Organization to the Next Level (Hardcover)
I found "Email Marketing by the Numbers" to be the perfect blend for my organization, Cantaloupe.TV. We've been doing email marketing for about 2 years and for us the book provided a satisfactory introduction to the most important email marketing topics (i.e. if you just focused on and mastered these areas you're well above average) but it also had plenty of information for us to grow into (i.e. we're probably 6-24 months away from implementing many best practices).
If you're already doing Taguchi testing to optimize your email templates, you'll learn something from "By the Numbers" but it's likely not going to take your organization to its "next level"; however, I would still argue it has value for any individual wanting to learn the complete email marketing picture. This book is a fantastic guide, with actionable advice for mastering email marketing best practices.
P.S. My organization does mostly b2b marketing and the fact that the book sometimes uses b2c examples did not detract from the relevancy of the lessons.
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Review of The Million-Dollar Financial Services Practice: A Proven System for Becoming a Top Producer (Hardcover)
My only regret is that the book was not published prior to my start date.If you are new to the financial services business or looking to make a career change, this is a must read book.If you are a seasoned pro, but not a million dollar producer and want to break through to the next level, this book will be of great assistance.
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Review of Seeing the Elephant: Understanding Globalization from Trunk to Tail (Hardcover)
He illustrates globalization is more than trade or finance or foreign policy, but instead a complex tapestry that reaches across borders, cultures and religions. This complexity had led to great interconnectedness thereby policies that pursue isolation or harp towards the past are not effective at managing outcomes that lead to peace, prosperity and sustainability.
Marber argues that there is no way to maintain status quo. The rise of emerging economies, particularly the E7, a group in contrast to the diminishing dinosaurs of the G7, means that the global playing field is changing.
While the G7 increasingly engages E7 countries economically through trade and now through China largely financing efforts to bailout the US economy, serious political engagement has been slow and conditional. Early and constant engagement with these countries will tend them towards behaviors that value peace and human rights as well as the environment. Real engagement will also empower and incentivize them to maintain peace in their own regions thereby reducing the need for constant western led efforts.
Seeing the Elephant is a must read to understand the true breadth of globalization, the potential pitfalls and the great opportunities that exist. A five star book from a five star, post partisan thinker.
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Review of Advisor for Life: Become the Indispensable Financial Advisor to Affluent Families (Hardcover)
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Review of Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians (Hardcover)
This 672-page 23-chapter book is written in a college textbook style.For example, each chapter begins with a handful of objectives, followed by the subject matter including large easy-to-read charts and tables (many created using TradeStation charts and data from Ned Davis Research, Inc.), and ends with a conclusion section, as well as review questions.
In the introduction to the subject, the authors review the history of technical analysis, as well as the importance of trends, and the controversy surrounding the validity of the random walk hypothesis and the efficient market hypothesis.Next, the focus is on market indicators (Dow theory, market sentiment, market breadth indicators (ARMS Index, 90% down days, new highs and new lows, and percent of stocks above their 10 and 30 dmas), cycles and patterns, and fund flows into the market.Also reviewed are breakouts, stop placements, retracements, and moving averages.
There is an extensive review of chart construction, chart pattern analysis and trend confirmation using bar charts, candlesticks, and point-and-figure charts.Also covered is a discussion on cycles, Elliott wave, Fibonacci and Gann.Furthermore, there is a discussion of trading and investing and market and issue selection.A chapter on system design and testing, and money and risk management provides additional insight into the subject.
The knowledge imparted by this book can benefit financial professionals, individual investors, college students; financial journalists who want to learn the key concepts of technical analysis, and other interested parties. In addition, this book can also be used as a study guide for the Certified Market Technician (CMT) designation.
This book is substantial in content and a welcome addition to the field.Those wishing to increase their technical analysis knowledge even further, can read books by John Murphy, Greg Morris, Thomas Dorsey, Martin Pring, Steve Nison, and of course the joint work of Robert Edwards andJohn Magee.
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Review of Volatility and Correlation: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox (Wiley Finance) (Hardcover)
If you want to trade exotics, you have to read it anyway...
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10/29/2009
Review of The Cost of Capitalism: Understanding Market Mayhem and Stabilizing our Economic Future (Hardcover)
Finance usually comes across as Dull (that's dull with a capital D), but The Cost of Capitalism is not boring. For example, Barbera uses hypothetical home-buying twins, Hanna and Hal, to explain why the mortgage bubble burst after a relatively small drop in property values and how the resulting pop disabled the banking industry--the case of "a small set back delivering cataclysmic consequences."
Barbera believes that capitalism is the best economic system (no surprise there, he makes his living analyzing capitalism). He is also a disciple of Hyman Minsky. If you don't know who Minsky is, that's fine, because the book does a masterful job of placing Minsky in today's context, which lays the groundwork for a major theme of The Cost of Capitalism: Central financial planners must admit that players in the free market (from Main Street to Wall Street) make decisions based more on human nature than rational theory. The resulting behavior leads to booms and busts. The busts require government intervention--the cost of capitalism.
The book uses historical analysis to focus on cause-and-effect relationships that have somehow been missed by the Federal Reserve. Barbera writes, "From 1945 to 1985 there was no recession caused by the instability of investment prompted by financial speculation--and since 1985 there has been no recession that has not been caused by these factors." Yet, as Barbera shows, the Fed behaved as if inflation were the economy's only enemy. He argues persuasively that American capitalism needs "a new paradigm," one that recognizes the wisdom of Minsky and extracts our proverbial head from the sand.
The Cost of Capitalism is full of instructive charts and graphs, which simplify complex ideas as well as providing welcome visual breaks between analytical prose. My only complaint (any reviewer worth his/her salt has to have at least one) is that the notes and abbreviations with the graphs could have been better defined.
(R.O. Palmer is the author of three novels, including his newest release, "Darress Theatre.")
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Review of Government and Not-for-Profit Accounting: Concepts and Practices (Hardcover)
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Review of Introduction to Business Statistics (with Student CD-ROM) (Hardcover)
My students are mainly business majors, not mathematicians, and this book is 100% suited to this type of application. The examples are 'real world' that actually explain where a particular concept or distribution may be used. In essence-this book covers everything you'll need and then some...
If I DO have a couple of 'moans' about the book, it gets a bit too 'in depth' in some areas, way more than the average business student would ever need, and also the CD, which is a bit of a waste of time, dealing with data files for Excel and Minitab. There are no 'REAL' learning tools.
I heartily recommend this book to anyone who wants to learn the subject at their own pace. It's expensive, and the prior versions contain about the same stuff, just in a cheaper package. There have been no real 'breakthroughs' in Stats in the last few decades, so the subject matter is pretty much unchanged. As the adage goes "You pays yer money and takes yer choice"- a few 'dog-eared' pages won't kill you!
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Review of The Fundamentals of Municipal Bonds, 5th Edition (Hardcover)
However it contains limited math analysis.
Excellent, excellent reference book.
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Review of Fraud Examination (with ACL CD-ROM) (Hardcover)
Some reviews on Amazon don't do this book a justice. Overall a comprehensive text book in the area of Fraud examination. For curious and interested in this field, I also recommend Financial Shenanigans: How to Detect Accounting Gimmicks & Fraud in Financial Reports, Second Edition.
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Review of Trading Commodities and Financial Futures: A Step by Step Guide to Mastering the Markets, 3rd Edition (Hardcover)
This book would have been hot about 1985, helping you calculate a simple moving average with a pencil and paper. It really needs updating to remove anachronisms.
The big illustrated trading system TMVTT should be taken with a pound of salt. I have tested these kind of algorithms using trading software on historical data and their results are unimpressive in my opinion. I wrote special code to test the "trend reversal day trading system" as published, and ran it against two years of U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc through February 2006. Doesn't work. As a concept these systems have their merits as serious reminders of how important it is to trade with the trend, but mechanically they don't work in real markets in general. This has surprised me every time I test mathematically the actual results of these approaches, since I do believe the author is correct in saying they are commonly used in markets, and frankly it could be a big reason why technical analysis has a bad name for a lot of people with casual exposure.
If your trading plan is to hold a contract for a fairly long period (many weeks, months), or you want to be convinced to, this is where the wisdom of the book shines.
The book does have its appeal in the oddest places (some comments on contract terms, agricultural trading rules from the grave) that make you aware of the sincerity of the author and appreciate him overall for the effort.
It took me 2 hours to get through the whole book, and another hour to write the code and test the algorithm. And I'm pretty much done with it. But I'm no novice. But then, you probably aren't either.
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10/28/2009
Review of Direct Social Work Practice: Theory and Skills (Hardcover)
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Review of The Bogleheads' Guide to Retirement Planning (Hardcover)
I just finished reading the entire book and I can honestly say, it is a wealth of information in a concise and easy to read format.
IMHO, Every one involved should take a huge bow for the effort. For someone who will be considering planning for retirement, this is a straightforward and practical method to use in your planning. Each author lays it out in plain language, with explanations and links to pursue more detailed information.
As an early retiree, I particularly found the chapters on Social Security, Early Retirement and especially, Estate Planning and Taxes to be most useful for my situation. Perhaps many of these chapters will contain references to areas of retirement planning that have been visited from time to time in other periodicals and books. The real value of "The Bogleheads" Guide to Retirement Planning" to me is the fact that almost every area of planning is here in one remarkable book.
As we say in the Navy...Well Done!
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Review of Investing in Income Properties: The Big Six Formula for Achieving Wealth in Real Estate (Hardcover)
However, it is disappointing.For one thing, the author makes the claim that commercial properties are recession proof.Really?For the un-initiated, commercial properties are typically purchased based on cap rates.You'll take the Income that a property produces and divide it by an appropriate cap rate to determine what you will pay for the property, or what market value for the property is.As a result of the current credit crisis, risk has been re-assessed and cap rates have risen significantly across the board.
There is no doubt that cap rates have risen.Take for example a property that produces an annual income of $100,000.If you use a cap rate of 6.5% (fairly typical about a year ago), the result would be a value of approximately $1.5 million.Cap rates have risen consistently approximately 200 basis points over the past year.That same property would sell today w/ a cap rate of 8.5%.Using this cap rate results in a value of approximately $1.2 million. That is a value loss of $300,000, or approximately 20% of your value.Typically an investor would put 20% down.So if you bought this property a year ago w/ a 20% downpayment, your investment today would be gone and you could potentially be bankrupt.Does this sound like an investment that is "recession proof" to anyone?
I know my comments here sound like I am a nay-sayer.I actually am not.However this authors angles on things are simply not accurate and are clearly written to an audience that can't counter the author's points.It may be a good read for someone looking to learn more about the real estate industry.However, anyone with any existing knowledge and experience in the industry should skip this one.
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Review of The Design of Business: Why Design Thinking is the Next Competitive Advantage (Hardcover)
Dr. Martin is Dean of the Rotman School of Business. One of his previous books was Opposable Minds: Winning Through Integrative Thinking. The theory of that book was that the ability to hold 2 opposing thoughts in mind often lead to a third superior view. The Design of Business has some of this "opposable" view thinking.
From The Design of Business book:
"What is Design Thinking Anyway?
Design thinking, as a concept, has been slowly evolving and coalescing over the past decade. One popular definition is that design thinking means thinking as as designer would, which is about as circular as a definition can be. More concretely, Tim Brown of IDEO has written that design thinking is "a discipline that uses the designer's sensibility and methods to match people's needs with what is technologically feasible and what a viable business strategy can convert into customer value and market opportunity." A person or organization instilled with that discipline is constantly seeking a fruitful balance between reliability and validity, between art and science, between intuition and analytics, and between exploration and exploitation. The design-thinking organization applies the designer's most crucial tool to the problems of business. That tool is abuctive reasoning."
Dr. Martin is a big advocate of strategy. I have found that good strategy in business can make successful business almost look easy. Of course you need good tacticians to execute but it is the strategy that takes a company to the next level.
Design of Business suggests that we do not use enough intuition in business. The book advocates using intuition combined with analytical thinking to devise strategy. (The opposable - intuition and analytics can co-exist to the better good)
My experience is that people are more comfortable with neat and tidy analytics but often the more messy intuitive strategy and design works better. Successful business is a bit messy.
Martin suggests that Design Thinking can be learned, fostered and developed which is indeed a hopeful thought.
I found the book interesting because it uses RIM as an example (among others) and I am close to that one so can see exactly where Martin is saying when he says Design Thinking yields competitive advantage.
Dr. Martin argues that time bias - short term thinking (often caused by the public markets) can kill good decision making. I heartily agree. Long term thinking is key.
Good book.
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Review of The Jubak Picks: 50 Stocks That Will Rebuild Your Wealth & Safeguard Your Future (Hardcover)
The book starts off with his opinions (and rationale) on fundamental and technical investing ("both are wrong"), identifying common themes and stocks that move according to that theme, and an overview of his method of stock selection. He then organizes his thoughts in this book based on a list of macro themes, evidence and arguments to support these themes and 'risks' associated with that trend.For each trend, he identifies key stocks that are his picks to play that sector. In addition, each chapter also lists additional stocks that he considers to be worthy additions if one were to overweight that theme/sector in one's portfolio, including mutual funds/ETFs that could mimic his opinion expresses in a particular chapter.
The book then concludes with a comprehensive list of his picks and short blurbs on that stock, including which chapter that stock or associated theme was mentioned.For the more experienced reader who may choose to buy this book, this particular section is perhaps more useful - quick scan of the list and then explore in detail when needed. If you are more familiar with the investment media, you may find the under-representation of healthcare stocks a bit unusual when most authors touting the aging population focus on medical device companies like Stryker, Medtronic, etc. while Jubak focuses on money management. A relative novice investor may benefit tremendously from the discussion on the trends and specific stocks for that trend.If you are not familiar with Jubak and his thought process, you may want to check out Moneycentral's website to view his portfolios (he has 4 different ones; he will be monitoring the 50 stocks mentioned in this book as well) before you invest in this book.
In short,good investment for a relatively new investor; if you are already tuned in to the financial press, monitoring his columns and portfolio on Moneycentral is a better pick.
Click Here to see more reviews about: The Jubak Picks: 50 Stocks That Will Rebuild Your Wealth & Safeguard Your Future (Hardcover)
10/27/2009
Review of Real Estate Rainmaker: Guide to Online Marketing (Hardcover)
Without getting into too much detail, this book covers topics such as:Why not to use your name as your domain name, how to use multiple domains, driving traffice to your website, capturing e-leads, follow up, turning leads into customers for life, email marketing, building an email database, using virtual assistants and more.In depth.This is the type of book I have been waiting for (and again, I'm in the mortage business - not a real estate agent!)
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Review of Creating Wealth: Retire in Ten Years Using Allen's Seven Principles of Wealth, Revised and Updated (Hardcover)
Many techniques that are mentioned such as targetingassumable mortgages are out of date and useless.And many of the deals hecovers as examples seem like a fast way to build up debt and incur monthlynegative cash flow losses.
A google search on Robert G. Allen revealsthat he is no longer pushing real estate but a vitamin multilevel marketingcompany.Also, a look at John T Reed's website reveals that Allen hasfiled for bankruptcy in the time period between when this book was writtenand today...1996, I believe.
There are probably better and more relevantreal estate books out there.Since I'm still searching for my personalreal estate methodology, I can't recommend anything now, but I would notrecommend this book to others -- especially beginners.
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Review of AdaptAbility: How to Survive Change You Didn't Ask For (Hardcover)
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Review of Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer) (Hardcover)
On the topic of retirement planning he talks about the advantages and disadvantages of 401(k) plans and of traditional and Roth IRAs.He likes 401(k) plans for their employer-dollar-matching feature but dislikes their limited choice of offered funds and their associated expenses.He advocates funding your 401(k) only up to the point where you've reached the maximum employer match.Beyond that he strongly advocates putting additional retirement dollars into an IRA where the range of choices of investments is so much broader.
In the category of family finance he advocates getting your children interested in investing as young as possible and lists six stocks that you might want to buy just one share of for your child that might pique their interest.That same chapter covers college and home financing.
In his prior books Jim has created lists of rules for investing and he does so again in this book.These twenty rules came from distilling his experience with the investments he makes for his charitable trust that he often mentions on Mad Money.For example one of these new rules that I've found myself prone to violating is "Don't quit when you get back to even". If you've taken on a position in a stock and if the price then drops significantly, it's easy to feel so grateful if/when it comes back up to your break even point, you bail out with a small profit.Jim contends that if the fundamentals of the stock are still good, hang in there with it for additional upside.
In the next to last chapter, Jim really hangs himself out on a limb by selecting five sectors that he thinks will be strong for the next five years and climbs even further out on that limb by naming twenty stocks that he thinks will do well over that time frame.I'm a subscriber to his Action Alerts e-newsletter where Jim announces the buys and sells that he plans to make for his charitable trust.At the time of this review, 16 of the 20 stocks are presently held by the trust and the other four are stocks that Jim has mentioned many times on Mad Money.
In the final chapter Jim makes what must be a major concession for him since he's such a strong advocate of selecting and holding individual stocks.At several places in the book he recommends that if you really aren't willing or able to devote the time and effort to individual stock selections (remember - his tough homework rule is one hour per stock per week!) your next best choice is a low cost passive index mutual fund such as the Vanguard VFINX.However if you REALLY want to invest in an actively managed mutual fund, Jim has conducted research and come up with a list of 13 recommended funds. In doing this research he looked at historical fund performance for the seven-year period 2000-2006.He gives especially heavy weight to fund performance in the three down-market years 2000-2002.He also emphasizes the importance of the fund manager and considers only funds where one manager ran the fund.
I recommend the book for those wanting a good (strongly opinionated) survey of the major issues of personal finance.For those not so interested in basic personal finance, just skip the first five chapters and read the final four chapters which stand on their own and will be of interest to the regular followers of Jim's books and TV.
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Review of Personal Financial Planning (Hardcover)
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Review of Principles of Econometrics (Hardcover)
Hill's "Undergraduate Econometrics" instills understanding by slowly going through derivations and principles, while at the same time motivating econometric analysis by referring to economic situations where it can be used. Much better than Gujarati (which tends to be a "cookery book" rather than giving an integrated treatment).
The book both motivates the student and takes them through the steps and methods they will need to adopt in further econometric studies, and always provides a good reference (often to one of the parent books mentioned above) when it omits proofs and other details.
The only weakness of the book reveals what is (to my mind) an unhealthy preoccupation with estimation issues, as opposed to those of data quality. As people like Granger have consistently pointed out, the real issues in 21st century econometrics have to do with what sort of data we have, and what methods are most appropriate in different situations. Despite this, Hill et al almost exclusively dwell on the identically and independently distributed (iid) specification. However, I should point out in the book's defence that this preoccupation is shared by most other introductory (and graduate) textbooks on econometrics.
The book's good points far outweigh these weaknesses. Finally, the second edition has some updates, and discusses such developments as time series econometrics."Undergraduate Econometrics" should definitely be purchased by anyone wishing to learn about modern empirical methods.
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10/26/2009
Review of The Ten Roads to Riches: The Ways the Wealthy Got There (And How You Can Too!) (Fisher Investments Press) (Hardcover)
Fisher's last book, "The Only Three Questions that Count", was superb. This latest book is very different from "The Only Three Questions...", which is all about personal investing but which also has application to other areas of a person's life.
"The Ten Roads to Riches" is about the varied ways a person can build personal wealth. Fisher draws from his own experience of meeting many successful people, as he charts the paths. The chapters are insightful and written in a tongue-in-cheek style with ideas that can be easily visualized.
Some examples: The first chapter "The Richest Road", which is founding your own business and building it into the next Microsoft, Nike, or Charles Schwab. The third chapter, about the "Ride-alongs", people who hitch theirselves to the Bill Gates's or Warren Buffett's of the world and rise as they and their firm rise. If you are Warren Buffett's longtime sidekick, there's got to be wealth in that, right? (Yup. Charlie Munger is his name and his net worth is $2 billion.)
Chapter four is "Rich ... and Famous". Some tips: compose songs, don't sing them, and star high school baseball players have slightly better odds of making the big leagues then star football players.
Chapter five is "Marry Well, Really Well", which is very amusing, but also serious. Hey, if you want to get married, hang around with rich people and fall in love with one of them! Plenty of examples including John Kerry (twice) and John McCain.
Chapter six is "Steal It - Like a Pirate, But Legally", making a career as a plaintiff's lawyer and suing companies. Enough said.... And chapter nine is "Trumping the Land Barons" - all about real estate.
The last chapter is "The Road Most Travelled", about doing it the old-fashioned way - get a good job, work hard, save and invest wisely.
Each chapter is a survey, giving multiple examples of people who took the particular road, and offering ideas, but no detailed plan. At the end of each are brief reviews of suggested additional readings for anyone who might be inclined to follow that particular path. I was surprised that there are actually serious books about how to "Marry Well", but maybe I shouldn't have been?
An enjoyable, quick read about one aspect of the business of life.
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Review of Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions) (Hardcover)
Of course, you shouldn't take every single idea written in any book, even the best, as the absolute truth.You should read Philip Fisher, William Nickerson, Adam Smith, John Burr Williams, John Bogle, Douglas Andrew, and so on, and take all the gems from each book, no matter how small (or how many), and piece together your own method of creating wealth.Don't be a sheep, be a sheperd, and put together your own flock.
That being said, read Security Analysis, and read it well.Highlight important points, draw arrows, create charts and diagrams representing key points.
Master this material.
You owe it to yourself.If you want to be an expert investor, you will put in this amount of effort in every book you read, especially the greatest works, like Security Analysis.You won't get rich by half-assing.This book is a priceless gem, and, although it may take several months of reading and research to understand its concepts, it will be well worth your while.
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Review of Catching the Wolf of Wall Street: More Incredible True Stories of Fortunes, Schemes, Parties, and Prison (Hardcover)
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Review of You Can't Predict a Hero: From War to Wall Street, Leading in Times of Crisis (Hardcover)
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Review of The Difference: How Anyone Can Prosper in Even The Toughest Times (Hardcover)
Money is often times linked to survival and fear in the modern society.I know many of us are raised to have this love-hate relationship with money.For instance, we love to have more money (e.g. one way to get there is to save and invest) but then we spend them instead of keeping them.In Jean's book, she started off describing the research she has done on the individuals who are classified in the following categories:
1.Wealthy
2.Financially Comfortable
3.Paycheck to Paycheck
4.Further In Debtors
Instead of being judgmental to any group of individuals, she simply pointed out "The Difference" wealthy people & financially comfortable people have (traits, the things they do, their beliefs, etc) versus individuals who are in the paycheck to paycheck & further in-debtors categories.Jean never for once went down the path to portray the "wealthy greedy" nor did she judge the "further-in-debtors" as financially irresponsible in her book.Instead, she mentioned many things wealthy and financially comfortable do are things paycheck to paycheck & further in debtors can learn to do to improve financially and our overall happiness (you can find her detailed suggestions in this book).She inspired all of us that to become financially comfortable and/or wealthy is not unrealistic goal in this life time through the research, her findings in the research and her interviews
I love these interviews.I used to have a gut feeling the not all wealthy and/or financially comfortable people are evil/greedy but I had no solid proof of such.Furthermore, if one has watched the news lately, it really does shaken some of my faith about this gut feeling I had all along (especially those news I hear about Wall Street big wigs cashing bonuses, etc).However, Jean's interviews in each chapter helps re-assuring us that pursuing financial goals does not automatically turn us into wealthy greedy categories.In fact, if we read through these interviews, one might realize the inner strengths many of the wealthy & financially comfortable individuals have and is something to admire and follow some of their paths.
Excellent book to get inspired to get our finances together.I highly recommend it!
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Review of The Age of Reagan, 1964-1980: The Fall of the Old Liberal Order (Hardcover)
Steven Hayward charts the death of small "L' liberalism (at the hands of the radical New Left) and the rise of the conservative tide which led to Reagan's victory in 1980.Much of the material has been printed before, but when it is all accumulated and is digested in full, the the effects are mind-boggling.
Thanks to Steven Hayward the history of the US from 1964 to 1980 comes alive in this absolutely brilliant book.As a Canadian, I found much of the material that related to the mid-sixties to early-seventies to be fascinating (even the economic portions were well done...and I'm no wizard with numbers!).Hayward's obvious dislike of the left's 'usual suspects' comes through on every page.Liberals may not like this book, but for the rest of us, it's a mighty fine read.
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10/25/2009
Review of The Financial Lives of the Poets (Hardcover)
The prose is constantly engaging, witty throughout, sparkling here and there with gems of insight, fresh and delightful turns of phrase, irony within irony.The story is built around the economic downturn and the ensuing consequences that rain down on individual families, a parable for our time.There are several surprising twists in the plot.Don't read reviews that will give them away, but wait to discover them in the book.
The picture on the face of the dustjacket is of a man in free-fall toward the dark land below against the sunset-orange of the October sky.Fittingly the narrative takes place in October, traditionally the month of market crashes and Halloween.It is much more attractive than the Amazon picture suggests, a treat to behold, easy to open and easy to read.
When the awards are passed out for best novels of the year, this one should be on the short list.
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Review of Where Keynes Went Wrong: And Why World Governments Keep Creating Inflation, Bubbles, and Busts (Hardcover)
The second section, Why Keynes Was Wrong mirrors the structure of the first section. In the table of contents, the two sections are lined up in vertical columns. For example, a section in the first part called Spend More, Save Less, and Grow Wealthy is lined up against a section in the second part called Spend More, Save Less, and Grow Poorer.
There are several main themes in book. One is that most of Keynes key doctrines are paradoxical. The most well-known example is the paradox of thrift: saving is good for the individual but if everyone tries to save, then it drives the economy downwards into a bust. Another example is "unemployment equilibrium". In each case, Lewis provides simple, logical arguments against Keynes's paradoxes. The book could be characterized as a defense of common sense against obscurantism and muddle-headedness.
Keynes' reliance on paradox brings to mind what philosopher Michael Levin calls "the skim milk fallacy", which he describes as follows: "According to this paradigm, science always shows that things are the reverse of how they seem. Deep scrutiny of virtually any phenomenon will reveal that everyday convictions about it are wrong. In fact, taking things at face value betrays naiveté, while readiness to debunk is the mark of the sophisticate, what David Riesman called an 'inside dopester.'"
Another theme is Keynes' reliance on his own opinion without any supporting facts. Lewis gives many examples of how Keynes moves through a point in his reasoning that cannot be decided on purely theoretical grounds by recourse to pure opinion without any empirical support. Lewis in some cases cites subsequent empirical studies that contradicts Keynes' opinions (and in other cases, Lewis provides a common sense argument against Keynes' opinion). Where some empirical work existed at the time, Keynes would dismiss with no supporting evidence if he needed things to go in the opposite direction in order to arrive at the result he wanted.
This book fills a missing niche in the literature: a debunking of Keynes for the general reader. I believe that this book would also be useful as a supplement in a macro course.But its most important contribution in my view is that it demystifies Keynes. The ideas in The General Theory form the foundation of modern macro-economics, which is the basis for the modern practice of central banking and pretty much all monetary policy around the world. What I mean by the mystification of Keynes is that, because his theories are so long-established and deeply embedded in academic economics, government, and the public consciousness, it is difficult not to think that there must be something really deep and profound there. Upon reading Lewis' book, it is somewhat shocking to see how weak his arguments are and how poorly they stand up to any kind of logical examination.
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Review of Creating Significant Learning Experiences: An Integrated Approach to Designing College Courses (Jossey Bass Higher and Adult Education Series) (Hardcover)
To be realistic, while it would be great for my students to have a working sociological vocabulary five years from now - I would rather they look at their world with respect and understanding, treat other people with dignity and grace, and be able to think critically about the world around them.
Fink proposes that curricula and teaching methods can (and should) be changed to meet the ever changing educational needs and dynamics of today's students.The text soundly lays out justification for the change in educational environments, and provides a sound framework to build classes that reach beyond memorization and regurgitation.Fink advocates setting students up for success by meeting their needs for core subject components, tying subject matter together with other subjects, personal life experiences, and the student's social context.The logical effect being, students who learn more, because they want to, and retain the material longer.
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Review of Before You Do: Making Great Decisions That You Won't Regret (Hardcover)
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Review of MCTS Self-Paced Training Kit (Exam 70-620): Configuring Windows Vista(TM) Client (Self Paced Training Kit 70-620) (Hardcover)
So far this is a really easy to read book with good examples and labs. This is a great book for people that want to get their hands wet with Vista and / or take the 70-620 test. It is apparent that Vista is much more complex than previous Microsoft client operating Systems, and this book more than does the job of showing you the new features, how to use them and some nice real life examples. I would say it is Part 1 of the Vista learning experience.
If you want to learn about how the new security features work, how user account control works, how to configure parental controls, power schemes and the like, this book is for you. If you want to learn how to debug the BSOD, how to roll out images or how the OS interacts on the Domain level this isn't the book for you, but I bet you could pick up a couple of good nuggets anyway. At the very least this is a great foundational book.
There are a couple of typos / mistakes. It is pretty early in the product lifecycle. Not as bad as my second edition "Cisco Secure PIX Firewalls" book with incorrect configs.
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Review of Advertising and Integrated Brand Promotion (Hardcover)
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10/24/2009
Review of Past Due: The End of Easy Money and the Renewal of the American Economy (Hardcover)
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Review of Concise Oxford English Dictionary: 11th Edition Revised 2008 (Hardcover)
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Review of MCTS Self-Paced Training Kit (Exam 70-562): Microsoft® .NET Framework 3.5 ASP.NET Application Development (Pro - Certification) (Hardcover)
As far as the test is concerned, if you use this book and nothing else, I can almost guarantee you will not pass the test. A lot of the questions on the test are mostly related to remembering which XML configuration tags to use for specific situations. The questions at the end of the chapters on this book are good but will not help you on the test. I honestly don't know why the authors do that, but I digress... My suggestion is that you supplement this book with Transcender or MeasureUp. I used Transcender and some of the questions on the test were similar to the questions on Transcender, but not many. I didn't use MeasureUp so I can't comment on how effective it is. I had previously taken and passed the 70-536 exam and Transcender was of great help, that amount of help did not apply to exam 70-562.
70-562 is way harder than 70-536. The former had 50 questions, whereas the latter only 40. They give you 3 and a half hours to complete the 70-562 test so that should give you some idea.
I wish you good luck because you are going to need it.
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Review of The Sages: Warren Buffett, George Soros, Paul Volcker, and the Maelstrom of Markets (Hardcover)
The author wants to understand from these VIPs how and why most experts failed, and only a few succeeded, to see the coming of this near-depression recession. Other experts like Paul Krugman have offered their explanations. What is new in this book is that Soros has warned of the gathering "'superbubble' in the 1990s (p. viii)." Buffet worried about financial excesses even earlier than Soros. Apparently close friendly and colleagues have known for a long time of Volcker's concerns about the states of the US and global economies, but the ex-Fed Chairman kept quiet because he did not want his worries to undermine the authority of his successor.
Why did these men see what many didn't see? - because they are not dogmatists; they are commonsense pragmatists. Instead of allowing blind fixation with quantitative idiocy of late, the three VIPs avoided dogma with high integrity and preparedness to accept mistakes and to move on with enthusiasm. History is part teacher and part cheerleader here. Volcker saw the strengths and weaknesses of Keynesian policy in dealing with the inflation of the 1965-1980. Soros and Buffet made billions of dollars in good and bad economic times. All three sages respect free markets, but they also understand that freedom has its limits. Ideal efficient markets assume a statistical person pursuing her/his self-interests (maximum satisfaction = utility). Unfortunately application of that model to real life is a folly, because financial markets play dice with other people's money.
If you like historical biographies, you will love this book. And there are new facts to learn. Did you know, for example, that Soros' Open Society organization is named after Karl Popper's book Open Society and Its Enemies (1945)"? Interesting stuff.
Amavilah, Author
Modeling Determinants of Income in Embedded Economies
ISBN: 1600210465
ISBN: 1600210465
Quotable Arthur Schopenhauer
ISBN: 9781430324959
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Review of The Strategy and Tactics of Pricing: A Guide to Growing More Profitably (4th Edition) (Hardcover)
Afterreading this book, you will understand the pitfalls of pursuing marketshare at all costs and common mistakes businesses and sales people makewhen setting or negotiating price.You will view your current pricingstructure and strategy in a new light, and be able to spot the weak spots. You'll have a better picture of how to attract the right buyers, those thatcan be served profitably.
The book indirectly touches on topics coveredin Co-opetition, and Thinking Strategically, as well as elements of theTheory of Constraints (see Eli Goldratt's "The Goal" and"It's Not Luck" or "Management Dilemmas" by EliSchragenheim)
I can't recommend this book highly enough.As for theother reader who states:
"After reading this book, I was able totalk circles around the $20,000 "marketing consultant" we wereconsidering."
believe it, it's that valuable!
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Review of Mr. Market Miscalculates: The Bubble Years and Beyond (Hardcover)
Grant has been charting the course of market excesses on a fortnightly basis for 25 years, and he has a remarkable record of getting it right. Most pointedly, Grant illuminates the human foibles to which we all fall prey and how these foibles precipitate the daily gyrations of stock and bond price levels. Grant's wealth of understanding is outstanding enough to recommend the book, but his ability to generously lace his writing with his sense of humor makes his writing simply priceless.
About the dismal financial crisis, Grant wryly remarks that there is more than enough blame to go around. Grant faults human nature in general for markets gone wild, yet he is particularly impressed by the level of incompetence exhibited by recent leaders who, according to Grant, "failed almost to the man."
The no-holds-barred book journeys through the missteps of the economic leaders of our times, and it does so with a breath-taking straightforwardness. Given the state of the world's economic affairs, I hope 'Mr. Market' becomes required reading for the legislators, the judiciary, and the executives charged with fixing the world's financial systems.
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10/23/2009
Review of Finding Alpha: The Search for Alpha When Risk and Return Break Down (Wiley Finance) (Hardcover)
*It contains important new ideas that can help any risk-taker with quantitative skills succeed
*It challenges conventional wisdom
*The meat of the book is based on practical experience, not just things that seem right to the author, but things he has tried, and generally with success
What I don't like about this book:
*$95, this should be a $25 list book available for $15 on Amazon and $9.99 Kindle
*Sloppy argument and editing, to the point that some passages are not intelligible (doubly annoying in view of the first criticism)
*Lack of appreciation for other people's thought, which leads to missing useful links
An example of the sloppiness (and there are many) is on page 21, "The key to the portfolio approach is the variance of two random variables is less than the sum of their variance." This makes no sense. He might mean "The variance of THE SUM of two random variables is less than the sum of their varianceS," but this is true only if their covariance is negative, while portfolio theory is more concerned with the positive covariance case. If the variables are uncorrelated, the variance of the sum is equal to the sum of the variances.
He might mean, "The STANDARD DEVIATION of THE SUM of two random variables is less than OR EQUAL TO the sum of their STANDARD DEVIATIONS," which is true, but a stretch from the original. Confusing variance and standard deviation is not something a quant is likely to do. Things like this destroy the value of the book for most people. Readers not confident of their quantitative skills will likely give up and figure the book is too hard (or worse, believe something false). Remaining readers will probably stop after the third or fourth example, figuring the author doesn't understand what he's writing about. Even those who continue on have lost whatever thought the author was trying to express. This stuff is hard enough even when expressed clearly and precisely.
The book's summary of quantitative finance is backed up by lots of references, but I would bet that the author has not read all the references. He doesn't even seem to be familiar with Hyman Minksky's work, and he was a graduate assistant for Minsky. Nassim Taleb is not cited and he has a best-seller that covers some of the same ground.
Unlike most people who dismiss the achievements of academic quantitative finance, the author does not concentrate on how unlikely the assumptions of the models are, instead he deconstructs the equations. But the point of the research is not the equation, it's the identification of the variables, the supporting argument and the empirical evidence. Financial equations are usually trivially simple, but that's not the same as obvious or useless.
For example, the Capital Asset Pricing Model, which is the major target of the book, is a relation between immediate horizon ex ante expected returns of securities. The author assumes that this is a natural and obvious way to think about markets and valuation, then criticizes the equation. But there are lots of other potential ways to frame the issue: prices, values, cash flows, long-term returns, ex post returns and others. And "expected return" only makes sense in a rigorous context (who does the "expecting," and when?). The author scorns rigor, but then uses the concept of expected return in a model with divergent expectations among investors, without discussion of whose beliefs define the expected return, and fails to distinguish that concept clearly from ex post average return and market-clearing return. He would probably call these questions "hair-splitting," as he does to similar objections in the book, but without answers his ideas don't make sense. Nowhere in the book does the author discuss time horizons, everything is stated in terms of a single one-year period. His theory requires that investors pay for risk, but he doesn't consider that risk can be created free (two risk-lovers can flip a coin for money or, more realistically, zero-sum securities can be created with offsetting risk). Why would something that can be created free have a positive price in the market?
However obvious the equations are now, people believed different things in the past, and acted on them. It was only after years of gathering empirical evidence and debating opposing views that the ideas changed practice. More importantly, it is only with this precision and data that the anomalies the author builds his theory on were revealed. No one ever discovered an anomaly without starting from the standard theory, without a standard there are no anomalies. The author implies repeatedly that academic finance ignores or explains away these anomalies when, in fact, they are the focus of research and other people have advanced explanations similar to his, and more radical ones as well. The author has seen far because he stood on the shoulders of giants, but he calls them midgets and tells the world he did it in spite of them.
Okay, with all that, why should you read this book? Because when the author stops his sloppy and foolish top-down theorizing and begins to reason bottom-up from what he knows, he has some brilliant, incisive and useful points. He describes the multiple facets of risk in a new way. It combines ideas from probability theory, behavioral theory and economics, but has a unique structure. It might be a brilliant theoretical advance, I'm not sure, but it is definitely an actionable view. This is risk that makes sense in the trenches. It is pragmatic and will not lead you into silly errors, as almost all other versions of risk can do (of course, some but unfortunately not all of the people who use these other ideas know that, and emphasize that you have to use them with care). This is risk defined for risk-takers.
For one example, and there are many, more than the examples of sloppiness, the book discusses Sharpe ratios on page 245-55 in a quantitatively reasonable way. This is very rare. Or a gem from page 177, "The list of good alpha ideas is highly parochial in practice because a good idea is an improvement on the state of the art, which is peculiar to a specific art." If this seems obvious to you, you are probably a risk-taker, and will find lots of good quantitative analysis in this book. If this does not seem obvious but you got as far as page 177, you are probably a quant who needs risk-taking explained in blunt terms. Both of you will find great value in this book.
The most important single insight is that alpha is not a discovery, but an invention. It's not something you get rich just for finding, it's something you seek because it's an opportunity to invent your way to wealth. Alpha is not a block of gold lying in the street, it's noticing that in some niche, you're a sighted person in the valley of the blind. You are good at telling the difference between good and bad positions of a certain kind, and not enough other people are equally good or better to remove the profit opportunities. Finding this alpha is only step one, you have to work at mining it. Alpha shows you how to mine in a good place (for you), not a played out shaft.
This idea is integrated into a reasonably complete financial theory. The foundation seems solid but, as described above, its superstructure is jumbled and ugly. Also, it has only been subjected to limited testing, so you try it at your own risk. It could change radically or even evaporate as people other than the author attempt to apply it with different skill sets and opportunities. For all of that, this is essentially reading for quantitatively-inclined risk takers.
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