11/22/2009

Review of Winner Take All: A Top Commodity Trader Tells It Like It is (Hardcover)

This book should be on the essential reading list for every aspiring Trader.

Trading is an extremely difficult business. It is often difficult to identify charlatans and myth from genuine journeymen and truth. Everywhere there is someone hawking a product with the promise of an easy path to success and riches. A primary focus of"Winner Takes All" is to debunk these people and their products. The real value in this book is that it is written by an insider - someone who has been a broker but who now trades his own account. It is rare to find a writer in this business who is not pushing some personal (and often concealed) agenda.Gallacher is one of those rarities. He is not trying to improve his station or business.He simply sets out to write an entertaining book that sets straight a few solid (and, for some, unpalateable) truths.
The hardcover edition is subtitled " A Top Commodity Trader Tells It Like It Is" . The paperback edition is half the price of the hardback and doesn't suffer the unnecessary hype; instead the subtitle here is " A Brutally Honest and Irreverent Look ..." . This subtitle is much more in keeping with the spirit of the book. Gallacher makes no claims about his own "success",he merely informs us that he has been trading for 20 years and that he has never wiped-out nor has he had to send additional funds to bolster up his account. At the least this makes him a survivor, which already puts him in the top 1% as far as I'm concerned. In any event one of the things that impressed me most in this book is that Gallacher makes no effort to bignote himself.
He readily tells us that he is very conservative (12 trades per year!) and that he strongly favors a fundamental approach. Having said this, and knowing he won't win any votes, he goes on to effortlessly bring a few big-name technicians (and other vendors) down a few pegs. Remember, here is a guy who at least walks the talk.

It is worth reading all the reviews because this book has elicited some extreme reactions( from 1 star to 5 stars). I believe the poor reviews tell us more about the people writing them than about the issues they raise:

The most detailed negative review is by maclee33 (1 star) who goes to much trouble to demonstrate an apparently incorrect argument in the book.

But it is the review that is fallacious, not the book, and here's why. Gallacher uses a chart from Murphy's book "Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets" (and I have this book too, so I can verify the chart) to show that Murphy's use of trendlines is after-the-fact and superficial. There is no discussion here about active and inactive contracts etc. Gallacher simply takes a chart that Murphy himself has usedand shows how misleading it is to draw trendlines with 20:20 hindsight. As Alexander Elder points out it is easy to trade the middle of the chart but, in the real world, we have to trade the extreme right of the chart.

"The lesson? All examples of the alleged uselfulness of trendlines, flags, pennants etc. will, under scrutiny, be shown to be the product of hindsight, perceived after the occurrence of the events they are alleged to foresee...Chartists see what they want to see, not what is really there."

Admittedly this is a polemic statement (and I do not personally agree with it)nonetheless this was the point that Gallacher was making and I cannot see anything "egregious and inexcusable"(maclee)in that.

Another reviewer defends Larry Williams (who gets a caning by Gallacher) stating that he (Williams) " made a million in a year" not once but twice ... and then taught his daughter (how to do it)". This anonymous reviewer gave the book 1 star while pointedly overlooking the fact that Gallacher's actual criticism was based on Williams losing more than $6million in one account while "making" the so-called $1million in another account - an event for which both Williams and Robbins Trading Company were taken to court and convicted by the NFA.

Another 1 star reviewer was upset with Gallacher's harsh treatment of neural net systems. Another didn't like the criticism of Elliot.

I think all of these negative reviews miss the point which is that it is very easy to mislead people in this business and we should be thankful for good watchdogs like Gallacher.

The book is humorous, insightful and well-written. I usually prejudge a book through Amazon by how many Customer Rating stars it gets. Sometimes these ratings mislead or disappoint. In this case I think 4 stars is honestly earned.

If you read this book with an open mind you will treasure it.



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