Review of American Theocracy: The Peril and Politics of Radical Religion, Oil, and Borrowed Money in the 21st Century (Hardcover)

Author, advisor, and academic Kevin Phillips is a man of considerable intellect. In the late 1960s he penned a signal work ("The Emerging Republican Majority") that successfully prophesized the ways in which massive socioeconomic and demographic shifts in American society from a northern and industrial one to one more centered in what he euphemistically referred to as the "Sunbelt". In detailing this momentous transformation, Phillips made some then-startling prognostications how such a shift in population and potential electoral votes would presage the long-term shift to a more conservative and Republican-oriented political majority for generations to come. Of course, being a conservative Republican himself, he assumed that this development meant greater fiscal responsibility, more rationally-based international savoir-faire, and much greater social stability. Yet, as he admits in his latest volume, "American Theocracy", that is hardly what the record reflects having transpired in the intervening thirty five years.

Instead, in this calm, clear, and well articulated tour of the social, economic, and political territory with which he is so familiar, Phillips describes the contemporary topography of conservative republican rule as being an inhospitable and ungovernable landscape pocked by craters of ideological fervor, fiscal insanity, and unspeakable personal greed. In many ways, his well-articulated broadside against the political right is all the more damning because it is not only from a true believer, but also from an outstanding academic with a persuasive resume, a man who carefully documents and substantiates everything he cites, especially in this scathing look at exactly where it is that the 21st century's form of rabid Republican conservatism is leading us. Yet one does not find here so much a prosaic attack on the present Bush administration as it is a penetrating historical analysis of how we got to this point in terms of three frightening enduring social and political trends, phenomena neither invented nor originated by the present administration.

Phillips sees three interlocking tendencies as now reaching a critical point in defining and even threatening the future of the polity. First is the rise of the corruptive influence of oil on both domestic and foreign policy; second is the rise of an intolerant form of radical Christian doctrine into key areas of public life; and third, the incredibly irresponsible increase in the level of both public and private debt. Each of these trends threatens to undermine both the short-term and long term stability of the nation, and each in its own way is a key factor in the way that describes how it is that both the Executive branch and the Congress are becoming increasingly beholden to special interests and are increasingly undemocratic. In particular, the fashion in which President Bush and the Congress have used permanent tax cuts for the wealthy as a device to transfer responsibility for future debt away from the wealthy and toward those with less means and less political voice, while at the same time insanely increasing that public debt, defies both morality and logic. Moreover, Phillips finds that the ways in which these trends are unfolding makes us as individual citizens and as members of the larger collectivity substantially less likely and immensely less able to determine our own future in anything resembling a rational and progressive fashion.

In many ways, this book represents a kind of sequel to Phillips original tome in the sense that herein he once again provides for the reader the sort ofbroad structural perspective illustrating the ways in which social, economic, and political change profoundly impact the future for both society at large and individuals in private, personal existence. In so detailing the powerful fashion in which these three powerful trends relate to each other and how they combine to impact the nature of American society itself, how they tend to push the nation toward ever more limited and ever weaker versions of its former substantial self, he also offers the reader an opportunity to understand the true nature of forces around us that demand public action now. This is an unnerving snapshot of America at a fateful crossroad, at a point that even the dullest among us must begin to recognize the palpable dangers. With the publication of this thoughtful and thought-provoking book, we can no longer say no one has warned us. Enjoy!




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Review of Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism (Hardcover)

For those who have read Kevin Phillips' American Theocracy: The Peril and Politics of Radical Religion, Oil, and Borrowed Money in the 21stCentury, many of the themes in the current work will sound familiar.In this book, as well as American Theocracy, he reminds us that previous empires such a 17th century Spain, 18th century Holland, and the late 19th and early 20th century Britain all succumbed to financialization as their global power reached its peak.He argues the the United States is now in a similar position.In the last 30 years financial services have grown from 11% of GDP to 21%, and manufacturing has declined from 25% to 13%.A reversal of roles that Phillips sees as very unhealthy.

This huge growth of the financial sector was not without adverse consequences: in the last 20 years public and private debt has quadrupeled to $43 trillion.How this came about has been expertly explained in another book called The Trillion Dollar Meltdown: Easy Money, High Rollers, and the Great Credit Crash by Charles Morris.There was easy money as the Federal Reserve was lending money at less than the rate of inflation.Money was risk-free for the lender since they collected fees up front and sold the securitized loans to investors.When this process was repeated millions of times, one ends up with hard-to-value securitized debt throughout the global economy.Then when housing prices start to decline and homeowners start to default on their mortgages on a grand scale, you have a global crisis of American capitalism.(Bear Stearns alone was estimated to be holding $46 billion worth of bad money.)

As in American Theocracy, Phillips writes that the oil industry is another component of the current crisis.In the US oil production peaked in the 1970s, on a global level it is peaking right about now.And with the ravenous appetite for oil from newly industrialized countries such as China and India, prices will continue to go up.The US still gets "cheap" oil relative to Europe since oil is priced in dollars, but that advantage may soon disappear.The weakening dollar is forcing OPEC countries to move to Euros and other currencies.And some oil producing countries such as Iran and Venezuela are moving to other currencies for reasons other than economic.

The author began his career as a Republican strategist, but he has long since disavowed them.Having a monetary policy of free money, a fiscal policy of tax cuts and increased spending, and an ideology of unregulated market fundamentalism, the Republicans have lost most of their credibiltiy.This does not mean Phillips has gone over to the Democratic side.He believes that Bill Clinton was instrumental in the financialization of the economy, and that currently Hillary and Obama are beholden to investment bankers and hedge fund managers.What used to be the vital center in Washington is now the "venal center."

The conclusion of this volume is very gloomy.Phillips believes that we are at a pivotal moment in American history when the economy has been hollowed out, we are saddled with trillions of dollars of debt, and our political leaders are dishonest, incompetent, and negligent.Given that all that may currently be the case, it may be instructive to further meditate on the empires of the past.Spain, Holland, and Britain all managed to survive and even thrive, hopefully the US will do the same.



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Review of Beyond Reason: Using Emotions as You Negotiate (Hardcover)

I recently finished reading "Beyond Reason" by Roger Fisher and Daniel Shapiro.The book is centered on an idea that emotions play an important role in negotiations and provided an analytical view on how to best manage the emotional side of negotiations.While I was aware that emotions can have a big impact on a negotiation, or even a conversation, I really enjoyed the perspective that the authors offered on dealing with people who "abuse" the power of emotions, ranging from coercion by threat to playing on sympathy.

Although the advice of the authors was generally helpful, I sometimes questioned practicality of following the guidelines in day-to-day affairs.For example, the authors encouraged the readers to document and discuss each of the negotiations as part of constant learning process, often spending sixty to ninety minutes in follow up discussions.As a manager of a development team with frequent meetings, such analysis would put a significant damper on my productivity.However, I realize that the book is not intended to be followed as a "manual" and each person may have to make practical adjustments.

Overall, the book is a "must read" for everyone, not just frequent negotiators.In the book, I found a lot of advice on how to respect the emotions that govern the meeting in many different settings.Since I learn best from seeing complex concepts in action, the case study that concluded the book put a neat "bow" on a very enjoyable and valuable read.



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