Showing posts with label Springer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Springer. Show all posts

3/13/2010

Review of Catastrophe Modeling: A New Approach to Managing Risk (Huebner International Series on Risk, Insurance and Economic Security) (Hardcover)

An excellent survey of disaster insurance premium estimation.The volume is written by a variety of contributors, but they follow an outline predetermined by the editors.The material starts with an introduction to natural disasters (hurricanes and earthquakes), then reviews the primary 'technique' recommended by the authors: using GIS databases and sophisticated computer models to predict disaster costs (disaster models).Unfortunately, the details of running these models are hard to communicate without giving the reader access to an interface of a sample model.

Despite this difficulty, there is an excellent chapter detailing the legal battles between the insurance industry and consumer advocates.The battle was fought after the Northridge, CA earthquake, and the GIS data and disaster models were the heavy artillery employed by the insurance brokers. The authors review difficult issues regarding 'fair premium price' determination for regulated retail insurance policies.The purchasers of disaster insurance tend to see the brokers collecting risk-free profits. The brokers counter that the Northridge earthquake insurance payouts exceed all the premiums paid in California for over 20 years.Elsewhere the authors mention hurricane Andrew insurance payouts exceeded all insurance payments ever collected in Florida.

The final chapter covers 'terrorism insurance', and represents an excellent survey of issues facing the insurance industry after September 11.One of the interesting issues raised in the mismatch between industry assessment of 'fair premium' and public assumptions that a 9/11 type disaster could not happen, again.At least this is what sale of terrorism insurance demonstrates.

The book will probably suggest more questions than it answers.In particular, the chapter on terrorism raises interesting issues about 'governmental' coverage versus 'private' coverage.At a certain level, victims of terrorism can expect taxpayers to 'aid' those suffering from the disaster. 'Aid' is another term for insurance, but 'coverage' is universal and payments hidden in various taxes.Coming up with fair 'retail terrorism insurance premiums' seems beyond the capabilities of the US insurance system. The problems are structural and won't go away any time soon.



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2/26/2010

Review of Mathematical Statistics for Economics and Business (Hardcover)

I bought this book because I was worried about starting an Econ PhD program without any experience in mathematical statistics. I am so incredibly pleased with my purchase. The author clearly lays out the axiomatic theory of probability and then continues to mathematical statistics, using many examples drawn entirely from economics. It is so helpful to see the connection to the material where I will actually be using probability. I'm so glad that I bought this book instead of a more general approach to probability and statistics.



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2/20/2010

Review of Information-Statistical Data Mining: Warehouse Integration with Examples of Oracle Basics (The Springer International Series in Engineering and Computer Science) (Hardcover)

No matter one is a beginner or an expert in the field of data mining,"Information-Statistical Data Mining: Warehouse Integration with Examples of Oracle Basics" is really a great hand book. The book is written in plain English to explain the terminologies and the concept of patterns for data mining --- making it easier for readers to understand the basic and advanced data mining concepts. Also, it shows clearly how data mining theories are realized in software implementation, how the implementation is applied to a variety of data sets in different disciplines, and how one can gain knowledge from the valuable information obtained from the process of data mining. Furthermore, it also discussed the way to interpret and to
evaluate the quality of information resulting from the process of data mining.I particularly like the real world case study examples that help me to understand the data mining principles discussed in the book, and to draw me in further into the field. This book is well organized. I strongly recommend the book!



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2/01/2010

Review of Mathematics and Technology (Springer Undergraduate Texts in Mathematics and Technology) (Hardcover)

A interesting book covering a wide range of applications. The titles of the first four, of eleven, chapters gives a sense of the broad diversity of topics: (1) Positioning on Earth and in Space, (2) Friezes and Mosaics, (3) Robotic motion, (4) Skeletons and Gamma-Ray Radiosurgery. The material is generally well-written and is always interesting and instructive. This translation contains the occasional awkward sentence and, at least for U.S. readers, the occasional variant spellings, e.g., surprizing instead of surprising. At times, these can interrupt the smooth 'flow' of the text. Translation issues aside, this is a book that is both understandable and worth understanding.

Debatably, the most interesting application area presented is "Friezes and Mosaics", with its connection to linear algebra, symmetries, and transformations. Not surprisingly, applications discussed here are generally not unique to this work, and also appear in other application collections, e.g, the first chapter of "The Lighter Side of Mathematics" edited by Richard Guy also contains a discussion of frieze patterns.

There is some issue with marketing's description of the necessary mathematical prerequisites. Its overly optimistic to say, this book is "suitable for any curious individual with a decent command of high school math". This is an under-specification of the full prerequisite requirements.

For example, in the second chapter on Friezes and Mosaics readers are asked to remember, from their prior course work, "the classification of extrema of two variables using the second partial derivative test" and "the Hessian matrix". To gain full value from all chapters, readers will need in addition to linear algebra and Euclidean geometry, basic probability theory, as well as single variable and multivariable calculus. That is, they'll need more mathematical experience and maturity than might be implied from the specified prerequisite of a " decent command of high school math".

In conclusion: Acknowledging the occasional, albeit minor, awkwardness of the translation, for those with the appropriate mathematical prerequisites, this text can be recommended for its informative presentation of a variety of diverse and interesting mathematical applications.



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1/23/2010

Review of Energy and American Society Thirteen Myths (Hardcover)

This is an excellent introduction to real energy issues, written by experts, with many useful references for further study.Energy mythinformation (inadvertent or otherwise) propagates all too easily, and this book does a good job of debunking the common myths.

Anyone involved in policies regarding energy&climate change should be familiar with this material, and that includes ordinary citizens, especially those who might care about the US economy and environment seen by any grandchildren.

I'd summarize the book as saying:
a) We face serious problems, as we *will* run out cheap oil, and then cheap gas [look up "Peak Oil" in Wikipedia], and if we keep burning coal without sequestering CO2, we will push the planet into a much hotter state with serious economic downsides. Right now, the US economy depends on cheap oil, and of course, it might be better not to be selling off big chunks of the US economy to other countries to feed our oil habit forever.

b) However, we actually have pretty good solutions for many of the problems, mostly without requiring magic technology leaps.There is no one silver bullet, but a myriad of small actions to be taken to stop wasting energy, many of which actually save money right away.

c) Most of the actions required are actually policy choices, with help from widespread use of existing technologies, plus rational R&D investments.Low electicity-per-capita use in some states has been achieved with no obvious economic catastrophes.[Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, and California are not usually considered poor places.]Of course, we have much further to go, but in many cases, it really is a matter of choosing to do the right things.

The editors provide an introduction and summary bookending 13 myth discussions by (mostly) other authors.Following is a list of the 13 myths, with comments on a few of the chapters:

1. Today's Energy Crisis is "Hype"

2. The Public is Well Informed About Energy

3. High Land Requirements and an Unfavorable Energy Balance Preclude Biomass Ethanol from Playing a Large Role in Providing Energy Services
- This is an especially important chapter, as the topic engenders much confusion. Not all biofuels need be from corn, and there is more land available than many think.

4. The Hydrogen Economy is A Panacea
- Dr. Joseph Romm shows why hydrogen (especially for vehicles) is a long way off, if ever, compared to PHEV/FF (plug-in-electric-vehicles with flex-fuels).He shows why research is appropriate, but not spending huge $$ for premature deployment, especially to the detriment of truly useful steps doable much sooner.

I also his recommend Joe's website http://climateprogress.org/, and his book Hell and High Water: Global Warming--the Solution and the Politics--and What We Should Do.

5. Price Signals are Insufficient to Induce Efficient Energy Investments

6. The Barriers to New and Innovative Energy Technologies are Primarily Technical:
- The Case for Distributed Generation
- In many ways, distributed generation of electricity would be more efficient, but power companies are geared for centralized generation, even with expensive long-distance distribution.

7. Renewable Energy Systems Could Never meet Growing Electricity Demand in America

8. Worldwide Power Systems are Economically and Environmentally Optimal
- Tom Casten and Robert Ayres show how far off we are, illustrating the efficiencies gotten with waste-energy recycling / cogeneration ... that are strongly inhibited by regulatory issues and market distortions, compared with places like Denmark or The Netherlands, etc.See Casten's website: http://www.recycled-energy.com/index.html

9. Energy Efficiency Improvements have Already Reached Their Potential
- Amory Lovins shows why not, why "negawatts" are really cost-effective, and whynuclear plants don't seem very cost-effective compared to other options.I especially liked his description of his Rocky Mountain house that lacks a conventional heating system, but whose design cuts heat losses to within 1% of various free heat gains."The last 1% can come from a 50-watt dog, adjustable to 100W by throwing a ball..."

10. Energy Efficiency Measures are Unreliable, Unpredictable, and Unenforceable

11. Energy R&D Investment Takes Decades to Reach the Market

12. Climate Policy will Bankrupt the US Economy
- California is pretty aggressive on this, because we have to be, as all the impacts of global warming will cost us money.Nevertheless, California is hardly poor, and we expect that reworking our infrastructure for energy efficiency, and heading towards minimal use of fossil fuels as early as we can, will only make us more competitive in the face of increasing oil costs.

13. Developing Countries are Not Doing Their Part in Responding to Concerns about Climate Change

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This is a very useful book.I expect to study many chapters in further depth and chase down references.





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