Janet Tavakoli, a well-known expert in the world of credit derivatives and structured products (yes, those toxic assets) has written a remarkably entertaining and insightful book in which she combines Mr. Buffett's wisdom and advice with her own views about the credit crisis. Tavakoli's previous books, all about highly technical topics, allowed her to show only one set of skills, albeit an important one: her ability to explain technical issues in an accessible manner.In Mr. Buffett, however, a book for the general public that contains no formulas or equations, she demonstrates that she can write not only with clarity but with wit.Her prose is agile and precise, and her words punch her victims always fatally, and not once, but just in case, many times.Hints of this refreshing style were somehow present, although not totally in the open, in her previous book (Structured Finance & Collateralized Debt Obligations).Despite the subject matter she managed to include comments about triboluminescense, sexual positions, and the Nogorno-Karabakh dispute while making reference to characters as diverse as Michael Moore, Richard Feynman, Shakespeare and Paul Marcinkus.
Mr. Buffett started with an invitation by The Sage of Omaha to Tavakoli in June 2005 ("Be sure to stop by if you are ever in Omaha and want to talk credit derivatives") after she had mailed him a copy of her latest derivatives book.Knowing that she would never have any reason to be near Omaha, Tavakoli volunteered a few days to visit.Shortly thereafter, she flew from Chicago (where she lives) to have lunch with Mr. Buffett in a place "with no décor but good food."That started a dialogue between the two of them (through subsequent phone calls, e-mails, and letters) that seems to be still going on.
In a sense, Tavakoli's book is more about the current crisis rather than Mr. Buffett, although there is enough about him to satisfy the Buffett-curious reader.He comes across as a deceptively affable man who advises her not to neglect her love life, enjoys and values gossiping, reads financial reports the way a teenager reads Playboy, and believes there is no difference between value and growth stocks.This came as personal relief because I always failed to see the difference between them no matter how hard all the mutual funds prospects I have seen try to make that point.On a more serious note, Mr. Buffett seems not to take the Efficient Market Theory (or dogma?) too seriously.Not a surprise if you think that his track record as investor is a living proof of the fallacy of the theory.More important, Buffett reminds us of the danger of leverage: anyone can show great investment returns with leverage (inflated revenues, he calls them).It is when things go the other way, and leverage magnifies the mistakes, that you can really see who has been swimming naked.
But the backbone of the book (and its most interesting aspect) is the critique and analysis of the current financial crisis that Tavakoli intertwines cleverly within her own dialogue with Mr. Buffett.She makes a convincing case that at the root of the present crisis there was a bad combination of dishonest executives and bankers under the surveillance of incompetent, and probably equally dishonest, regulators.
For example, the chapter about the backdating of stock options scandal, although not strictly related to the credit crisis, makes you wonder about the character of the people running corporate America: in the 2006-2007 timeframe more than 120 U.S. companies were under investigation for accounting irregularities; 85 ended up amending their earning statements.She is very critical of the role played by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which invoked an obscure 1862 provision to undermine the states' ability to police predatory lending.This decision, she believes, had a very negative effect on mortgage origination standards and their subsequent re-packaging by investment bankers.Additionally, she castigates the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for failing to oversee the investment banks.And when it comes to the rating agencies, which blessed some of these securitizations with AAA ("very safe") ratings, she employs the term "financial astrology".Enough said!Ironically, Mr. Buffett, who through its investment company (Berkshire Hathaway) owns almost 20% of Moody's stock, has admitted to her that this is one investment he is not proud of.
Tavakoli also paints a disturbing picture when she describes the collapse of two Bear Stearns investment funds (she received a "thinly veiled threat" by the fund manager after she was quoted in the press saying something he did not like); when she explains how the well-connected Carlyle group got help from the Fed while a less plugged-in fund, Peloton, was let go; and when she shows that her initial assessment of AIG, Merrill, and Citigroup losses (all made in late 2007 and early 2008 and in contradiction with the information released by those companies at the time) was ultimately right on the money.The list of financial and ethical shenanigans is long and compelling, full of juicy anecdotes, and supported by solid data and well-articulated reasoning.Although is fun reading about these issues it is quite depressing to think about them:you get the sense that the story is more in tune with the doings of a corrupt military dictatorship in a third world country rather than the oldest democracy in the world.
Much has been said about the acronyms used to describe the financial instruments involved in this crisis: CDOs, SIVs, CPDOs, ABS, MBS, CDS, ABCP, etc.Ironically, the list of government entities which, in her view, have something to apologize for is almost as long:SEC, FED, OCC, FDIC, FHFA, OTC, OFHEO, etc.To what extent these regulatory entities, which sometimes overlap, but also leave voids, will survive in a global market is something to ponder.The case for one regulatory body with wide international authority is becoming stronger as the case for state-level bodies become more dubious.Although Tavakoli does not make these two points explicitly, one wonders.
Some readers might feel turn off by a few Warren-and-I type of statements that seem a bit self-serving.And a case can be made that perhaps many investors deserved what they got because in their greedy quest for unreasonable returns they overlooked basic principles of prudence --a point that does not come across very strongly in the book.Lastly, Chapter 13 (The Fogs of War, Religion and Politics), a very interesting chapter in its own right, is probably better suited to be dealt with in a separate (next?) book. That said, these are minor sins in an otherwise excellent book.
The following paragraph, which appears close to the end of the book, summarizes the main thesis,
"Washington is supposed to provide a strong national defense; but we were attacked from within our borders-sometimes by those charged to protect us.Washington failed in one of its more important duties, Washington failed to protect our money."
Further down she adds, "Homeland security requires a secure homeland currency."I doubt that anyone would be left indifferent by these provocative, but well-argued, points.
There is no free lunch they say, at least according to most economists. And certainly lunch with Mr. Buffett is far from free ($ 2.11 million, according to eBay, June, 2008). Clearly, Tavakoli made a good decision when she accepted Mr. Buffett's lunch invitation. However, for the rest of us, who are unable to pony up the two million or unlikely to get invited by the great investor, this book is a very good substitute.
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Dear Mr. Buffett: What An Investor Learns 1,269 Miles From Wall Street (Hardcover)
This is a terrific book for anyone, any level of competency that wants to or needs to now about collateralized debt obligations and structured finance; particularly new developments in cash and synthetic securtizations.The author is so insightful and clever in explaining these complicated financial instruments it is almost beyond words; as well as beautiful and articulate.This book would be an excellent stocking stuffer for any financial risk management professional or as an office gift for any support staff or assistants.This magnum opus is an excellent reference book with solid and consistent definitions, descriptions and real world examples.No doubt this financial treatise by Tavakoli will become the textbook of choice for any graduate school developing a curriculum on financial risk management.If it was possible to give this book ten (10) stars, I would.
