Review of Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books) (Hardcover)

I enjoyed this book even though I was previously aware of its economic arguments and suggestions for portfolio allocations. Mr. Schiff is passionate and sincere and that tone comes across in the book.For that, thank the excellent John Downes who has co-written several other good business books. Many other reveiwers here discuss the contents of the book so I won't go there.

I worked as a bullion dealer in the 1970's so this is my second "crash" cycle.Many people thought the US would collapse in the 70's due to inflation and a national debt of $1 Trillion dollars. Many thought gold would zoom to the moon.Instead, gold crashed and languished for over 20 years. That's because the US was able to shift gears.

Reagan pulled the US economy up from its tailspin by switching from printing money to issuing debt.He took advantage of the low US debt/GDP ratio to inflate debt by selling bonds to Americans and foreigners. It accomplished the same thing - letting the economy expand with a near infinite supply of cash liquidity.George W Bush then doubled the US national debt to $10 Trillion in only eight years.Low interest rates sucked in the public who took on enormous personal debt.

The US now can't rapidly inflate because the dollar would collapse and can't take on more debt because investors doubt it can be repaid in sound money. People don't accept the possibility of an economic crash because they think the US/Bernake/Fed will always be able to pull another rabbit from the hat.This complacency will lead to disaster for most investors.

The US is tapped out on debt both public and personal. The US has so debased the dollar that it has fallen tremendously since Bush II took office and continued the pattern of reckless spending.

If you don't want to believe Schiff when he warns of what's ahead then listen to Greenspan as he touts his recent autobiography. He states directly that the US will have inflation for the next 25 years. He says the outlook for stocks, bonds, and the general economy is 'gloomy' for the forseable future.He says the dollar will likely lose its reserve currency status. This is "The Maestro" talking. He says it's going to be bad. Schiff tells you how bad and what to do about it.

Some people here crticize Schiff for touting his firm's services. So what. He tells readers what to do, but most won't act for themselves. So, he provides the service. Currently, gold is at 725 (September 2007). That's not cheap, but it won't be cheaper in 2009. The US will have to reduce the rate of gov't spending and that will feed back into jobs and consumption.I doubt that the dollar will totally collapse, but when it's all said and done, we'll get a combination of "manageable" inflation and rising interest rates.Most other nations will also inflate as they prop up their economies and scramble to get their share of the world's increasingly costly oil.

The only asset that trumps oil is gold.Bite the bullet and get your share. Reduce your US stock exposure and don't go within 20 miles of a long-term bond. Your financial advisor will be of little help in these matters. Their loyalty is to commissions. You'll have to start thinking for yourself and acting on it even though it will make your stomach churn and give you a migraine.

I'd suggest a general portfolio of 25% gold (ETF or coins), 50% cash, and 25% international stock index fund.If inflation is gradual, the foreign stock will keep pace. If war or rapid inflation strikes, gold will win big.Hold cash to provide liquidity and to take advantage of opportunity. You shouldn't have to wait too long. The politicians will paper things over until the 2008 election. At least hold enough gold to offset declining purchasing power of a fixed pension.If you need 30k a year to live on, then hold that much gold - at least. Live cheap and get out of debt.

Peter Schiff's book is certainly worth reading. We'll see the truth of that within a few years.



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Review of The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down (Little Books. Big Profits) (Hardcover)

Mr. Schiff's new book is a follow up to Crash Proof.I bought six copies of that book, because it was my introduction to real economics and I wanted to share it.Both his books are important because they accurately describe economic function in the context of what is happening now in our markets.He understands what is transpiring and warns people in advance.Protecting yourself from the economic forces now playing out is the focus of his work, not the full blown explanation of economics in general.For that, I recommend Economics in One Lesson, so that you may be fully educated on the subject.Read it as many times as you need to.

The foreword to Bull Moves is by Marc Faber, who endorses the common sense approach for the long term.The book's introduction warns of the inevitable downturn of an economy that was only possible through speculation borne of low interest rates.There is now no doubt that we are in that recession.The first chapters talk about the loss of America's purchasing power.The 1950's were a healthy economic time, because we produced goods that went around the world.High rates of production coupled with Reserve Currency Status gave the dollar an unbeatable edge back then.He then tracks reasons for the dollars' demise over time.He clarifies what inflation truly is.Unfortunately, most people don't understand it and how deadly it is.I don't like the way he explains Bretton Woods, and this is the second time he's done it in this manner.Bretton Woods was a poor excuse for a metallic standard and doomed to fail.Therefore it is my opinion that it was a dysfunctional group effort with multiple culprit nations."My country's name is France and I'm a central banker.""Hi France."

Mr. Schiff's theory of decoupling hasn't yet come true.It probably will, but I have to wonder after the recent worldwide interest rate reduction, if every central banker will see their citizens lose it all in their efforts to stick to the modern planned economy mantra.Additionally, the one prediction from his last book that is still unfulfilled is about the bond market.US Government bonds comprise the last bubble yet to feel the smack down from Adam Smith's invisible pimp hand.

Chapter three steers you through the confusion of government statistics.After reading about it, you'll finally realize what the government isn't telling you with their numbers.Chapter four explains historic market cycles and tells you how to restructure your investments.Chapter five is about investing in commodities.Let's take a breather shall we...Chapter six is specifically about gold and silver.He tells you about the different ways to invest and what to avoid.Seven gets you acquainted with investing in foreign countries and companies.Eight is about stable foreign economies that are his favorite to invest in.Nine is about how and where to invest in emerging markets.Currently, there are big problems in the foreign markets, but again, this book is for the long run.So keep that in mind.

Chapter ten is about employment.He talks about industries that will suffer, as well as the jobs that offer the most opportunity.Eleven is about what your declining standard of living will be like and ways to adjust.Twelve is about immigrating to a different country.To this one, I have to say "No Thanks."There are many problems in the rest of the world, not to mention, they're probably gonna hate Americans a lot at that point.

The last chapter is about bringing your money back to the USA.Peter says to wait until at least 2012 to see if the economy is functioning properly.I'm sure if you listen to his radio show, you'll be able to tell if we're there.

Throughout, Peter explains how interference into the markets has brought about so many of the problems that we now must face.He's one of the few who realize that government intervention is really the helping hand of a leper.Bull Moves is an informative and timely book.




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Review of Crash Proof 2.0: How to Profit From the Economic Collapse (Hardcover)

First a little disclaimer; as a college instructor and writer, I read a lot of business books. Frankly, I wasn't much a Peter Schiff fan and it would be fair to say he still tends to annoy me especially when he gets "hyper" like on an interview I just heard this morn via Financial Sense Newshour. Having said that, over the years I've done a major turn-around on my opinion about Schiff. Like many others, I initially would run across an interview here or there which seemed like he was excessively negative yet despite a bit of timing difference, the guy always made a lot of sense even while the likes of some so called financial guru's found on major media outlets were spouting stuff anyone with half a brain could see was downright detrimental to the average small time investor.

The likes of Schiff, Ron Paul, Nouriel Roubini, the Agora Group and others not only continue to make a great deal of sense but time is showing a growing crisis. This book has been updated to reflect many of the changes which have taken place since the writing of the first book plus added fairly substantial amounts of new research/content of interest.

The content is reader friendly, easy to understand and conversational in style. A brief history and overview is provided for those new to the discussion while those with more familiarity will still appreciate the updated statistics etc... Data is provided to support assertions including a few charts etc but are helpful not complex. Schiff provides a very solid explanation on where he stands with inflation and why including his definition of inflation. For those more versed in the ongoing debate - inflation vs deflation remains a sticking point among many investors. For the average American this is not a minor consideration when it comes to deciding what to do with your investment dollar, debt or money in general.Schiff tackles what he considered the "bogus deflation threat" head-on...an essential consdieration for every investor. Whether you agree or disagree - it is certainly worthy to review the rationale with a "what if" attitude before making a final decision as to your financial future.

Peter Schiff goes on to discuss various investments and risk(s) as well as provide an update of where we are in the predicted cycle. Closely coupled with this is a frank and fairly harsh overview of the current economic policy being put into place by D.C. combined with the status of consumer debt, corporate status etc...it does not paint a pretty picture or leaves much room for optimism but goes on to tackle specific investments including....
- TIPS (the problems)
- Currency Exchange
- Mutual Funds
-ADR's
- Cash Accounts
-Precious Metals
-Much more

Bottom Line - a worthy read for new investors, good updates for those that have read the first version. Whether you agree or not, Schiff presents important considerations every investor will want to keep in mind and does so in an easy to read method.






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