10/23/2009

Review of The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street (Hardcover)

Overall, Fox has written a very good book which covers a remarkable amount of material in only 322 pages. The problem is that this book, if properly done, should run around 600+ pages. Granted, Fox is a journalist, not an academic, so his audience might not have an appetite for a book that takes a month to read, but the topic is interesting and important enough to warrant a more detailed discussion.

Fox's book is organized primarily by ideas and then chronologically. This can lead to jarring jumps between time periods within chapters and the reader suspects that important topics are being missed. The twelve-page epilogue for example begins in 1833 and is in the 1960's by the turn of the page.

The mathematics discussed in the book is not terribly complicated but the reader is given no formulas, no graphs, no applications of the quantitative theories. Yes, everyone knows what normal distribution looks like but the power laws discussed deserve a chart. Mandelbrot's fractal theories need a diagram. Fox would also support his argument more strongly if he included the formulas which were eventually altered by the behavioralists. Without these, the reader is forced to blindly trust what Fox is telling him.

Despite these minor criticisms, the book is definitely worth reading. I am guessing that the title attracts many readers who hope financial-economics moves beyond the Chicago School efficient-markets framework. If this is what readers want, I recommend Beinhocker's "The Origin of Wealth." If you want a quick tour of academic financial thought, read Fox.



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Review of Contemporary Business (Hardcover)

Book arrived more quickly than the original estimate in great condition.What more can you ask for?Thanks!



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Review of Applied Economics: Thinking Beyond Stage One (Hardcover)

Once again, Sowell clearly explains everyday economic concepts with a series of interesting real-life examples from around the world and throughout history.The focus of the book is not only to explain sound economic concepts but also to explain why it is often in the personal interest of the political class to act contrary to these principles.The negative effects of their actions are often not felt until they are long out of office and few are likely to trace these effects back to their original cause.In the short term, doing the wrong thing gets them elected or re-elected.

Every voter should read this to inoculate themselves from the lies of our politicians.The book is non-partisan, exposing the political thinking of both US parties, as well as many others in other countries.

If you don't think you are interested in economics, you should be, because it affects the life of every man, woman and child on the planet.This book makes what can be a dry subject interesting.It's hard to put down!



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Review of Restoring Financial Stability: How to Repair a Failed System (Wiley Finance) (Hardcover)

I read this book immediately after I finished Cooper's The Origin of Financial Crises which was highly recommended by the usually trustworthy Economist. For several reasons, Restoring Financial Stability (RFS) is the best book on the current crisis by a long ways. I am shocked that there is only one Amazon review so far.

RFS is neither dumbed-down nor overly complex. Anyone who reads the Wall Street Journal or Financial Times will easily grasp the material covered and the language being used. The sources cited for the individual essays are predominately articles from academic journals but the authors of RFS do a nice job of summarizing the important points from these articles rather than assuming the reader is familiar with the sources. I am a history major and had no trouble following the authors.

You do not need to be interested in the solutions proposed in order to buy the book. The policy recommendations are brief and follow the much more important background information covering the causes and progression of the financial meltdown.

The book is especially worth reading because of its refreshing objectivity. It is not a political book or an anti-capitalism book. It tells the story of self-interested actors altering their behavior according to the incentives before them. The book focuses on these incentives and how they might be adjusted in order to achieve the same ends without the risk of harmful macroeconomic effects.



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Review of How We Decide (Hardcover)

Perhaps my expectations of one of my favorite authors/editors in Seed magazine and from his earlier book Proust Was a Neuroscientistwas too high...nevertheless, this book is a disappointment. Not that there is anything structurally or factually incorrect - it just doesn't add any value to a reader that is familiar with this field. The examples and studies mentioned in the book, for the most part, have been repeated many times in several books of this genre.Instead of providing additional insights or alternative interpretations, or any follow-ups to the experiments and studies, Lehrer, for the most part repeats the key points from these studies and attempts to make some points in the context of decision making. Despite best efforts, the book merely ends up reinforcing known and well-popularized concepts (even in popular literature) such as recency bias, cognitive dissonance, loss aversion, etc. If you have read books like Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions, Sway: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness you will be hard pressed to find enough value in this book to invest in this.Other books such as Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts and Why Choose This Book?: How We Make Decisions also cover similar concepts in a more focussed manner.

Similarity to other books is no crime. But one will be hard pressed to determine any differentiating value when the book is serving as another book referencing almost an identical set of research papers without providing a compelling counter-argument or new inferences.For a reader who is aware of the work in behavioral psychology, this book provides incremental value at best. For a reader getting initiated to this field, this book is an OK introduction to the vast research, though my no means a unique interpretation. It is written in a very accessible manner and the narration sustains the interest of the reader throughout the book.The reader may have been better served if the author provided a synopsis of each chapter in the context of his title "how we decide".
Overall, an interesting read if you are new to this field, but an also-ran if you are familiar with the popular literature in this field.



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10/22/2009

Review of The Big Rich: The Rise and Fall of the Greatest Texas Oil Fortunes (Hardcover)

This book takes on a subject that has been neglected for far too long.To understand conservative Texas today, you really need an education on the men that shaped it, namely ..Hunt, Cullen, Murchison, and Richardson.All four of these men are uniquely Texan, good and bad.Cullen is by far the most philanthropic, but in many ways the least enteresting, he lived a mostly quite life in Houston's enclave of wealth, River Oaks, and gave away 90 percent of his fortune.What I find most interesting, is that this most conservative of men, gave millions to Texas Southern, Houston's traditionally African American university; he also funded the University of Houston, it's not an understatement to call him Mr. Houston.H.L. Hunt is by far the most interesting, but by far the least philanthropic, Im not sure he ever gave to anything but the Klan, but his three families and all his silly ideas are so hilarious, you really have to give it to the guy for being colorful..Hurt's book on H.L. Hunt is fantastic..his meantion of H.L.'s "creeping" is the limit.As for Richardson, he was in may ways the quenticential Wildcatter, he had the look, the charm, and the bravado, and his collection of Western memorabilia is amazing.Murchison, on the other hand, was more like a brilliant accountant, and look liked one, he was the least like a traditional Wildcatter.This book also delves into the lives of the offspring of these iconic men.Murchisons son, of course founded the Dallas Cowboys, the subsequently, partied all the money away, Richardson's Bass family, has had their share of scandel, divorces et.al. and of course Hunts son's tried to corner the silver market in the 80's..talk about chutzpa and his son Lamar co founded the American Football League and owned the Kansas City Chiefs. Even the staid Cullen had an interesting grandson, the simply ridiculous Baron "Ricky" Di Portenova, he claimed to be an Italian Count on his father side, nobody bought it in Houston, but alas he was colorful, and threw some amazing parties at his mansion in River Oaks and his palace on a hill in Acapulco.Overall, this is a fun read, well written and researched, if you have any interest in Texas history and the Texas Oil Rich, then I cant imagine you not loving this book...as for the unhelpful vote..it just shows that on Amazon there is always at least one person who will find a black cloud on a sunny day..I mean how on earth is this review not helpful?



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Review of Bailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy, Revised and Updated (Hardcover)

Amazon Review


Long story short:After Bill Fleckenstein's GREENSPAN'S BUBBLES: THE AGE OF IGNORANCE AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE McGraw Hill asked him to do a follow up to that book. He (wisely) said no.

However, Bill suggested they contact me.

Which the publisher did. I turned them down (several times).Who had time to write a book? Besides, I did not want to do a fast rush-to-judgment type of thing. But they were tenacious in their pursuit, and I eventually succumbed to their flattery -- but on my terms, including having final edit on the manuscript. (This becomes important later on, as you will soon see).

Because of the way events played out, I ended up writing three separate Bailout Nation books over the next 15 months. The first version was a history of bailouts. This overview covered an arc from Lockheed (1971) to Bear Stearns (March 2008). Around the time this book was due (~Labor Day 2008), something was in the air . . . you could smell the leading edge of the approaching storm. I convinced the publisher to hold off a few weeks.

Boom! Fannie Mae blew up. Then Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Citigroup, Bank of America. Soon Merrill was on the ropes, followed by Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, GM and GE. All hell was breaking loose. Well, I thought, at least I had an ending. The expanded version of the manuscript, with greater emphasis on the latter part of 2008, was finished in December '08.

Or so I thought.

After I handed the book into the publisher (McGraw Hill), they let me know they had problems with my assessment of the Ratings Agencies. They were unhappy with my calling them "Pimps & Hos", or describing their business model of rating junk bonds as AAA for big fees as "Payola." (What would you call it?)

Not coincidentally, McGraw Hill owns of the largest Rating Agencies, Standard & Poor's.

The compromise was to remove the reference to Pimps, but using publicly available data and congressional testimony, to add more detailed analysis and quotations from experts. When it was finished, I found the revised section to be much more even handed -- and far more devastating -- to S&P. They (along with fellow rating agencies Moody's and Fitch's) were key enablers to the entire crisis. There were many other guilty parties, but I simply could not under-emphasize the ratings agencies.

When McGH rejected it again, I exercised my right to buy the manuscript back from them in January 2009. Numerous publishers were interested, but I went with Wiley -- they have a great deal of experience publishing business/investing related books, and as a publisher, had no conflicts of interest that would interfere with telling the full story.

The third version was the charm.

By this time, the amount of bailout money going to mismanaged companies, reckless speculators, and incompetent corporate executives had skyrocketed to 14 trillion dollars. This was infuriating to anyone paying attention.

Astonishing things happened as the book progresses. The more I researched and wrote, the more it was apparent we were witnessing the greatest heist ever made. By the last section of the book, history's biggest transfer of wealth -- from the taxpayer to the Banksters -- was taking place. Trillions were being shifted from the responsible to the reckless, from the prudent to the incompetent. It was infuriating -- and you will see as the book progresses my initial academic tone gets replaced with greater snark and anger.

I not only had my ending, I had a new cause -- exposing those who caused this mess, be they Democrat or Republican, Corporate CEO or derivatives trader. I hope the end result is something that will inform and illuminate, while entertaining you along the way . . .




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